Biden’s billionaire tax hits the super-rich. Can a wealth tax work?

The rise of the Robin Hood tax

Calls for a wealth tax on the world’s super-rich are once again gaining attention after U.S. President Joe Biden said he would impose a new “billionaire tax” on the country’s wealthiest if re-elected in November.

Outlining his 2025 budget proposals on Monday, Biden took aim at the uber affluent and reiterated plans for a 25% tax on Americans with a wealth of more than $100 million.

“No billionaire should pay a lower tax rate than a teacher, a sanitation worker, a nurse,” he said Thursday.

The plans, previously outlined in the president’s 2024 budget, reignited a decades-old debate over how best to account for the wealth of the world’s richest.

The issue has taken on fresh significance this year, however, as governments globally look for new ways to plug dwindling public finances and tackle wealth inequality.

This is about the wealthy contributing more … the extremely wealthy contributing more and being proud to do that.

Phil White

retired business owner and member of Patriotic Millionaires

Last month, global finance ministers meeting for a G20 summit in Brazil said they were exploring plans for a global minimum tax on the world’s 3,000 billionaires to ensure the hypermobile 0.1% pay their fair share to society.

Such ideas even have the backing of some of the world’s wealthiest. In early 2024, a growing network of so-called “Patriotic Millionaires” signed an open letter to world leaders, calling for higher taxes for the wealthy. Among the 260 signatories were Disney heiress Abigail Disney and “Succession” star Brian Cox.

“This is about the wealthy contributing more to the society, the extremely wealthy contributing more and being proud to do that,” Phil White, retired business owner and Patriotic Millionaires co-signatory, told CNBC.

But experts are divided over the effectiveness of a wealth tax, and its how achievable it is in reality.

What is a wealth tax?

A wealth tax is a “broad-based” tax on the value of all — or most — of the assets belonging to a wealthy individual or household, such as cash, property, vehicles, jewelry and other valuable items.

Unlike income tax, which is charged against annual earnings, and capital gains tax, which is imposed on profits accrued from the sale of an asset, wealth tax is seen as a more holistic way of accounting for an individual’s total wealth.

Such taxes were once prominent in Europe, though implementation dwindled at the turn of the 21st century amid questions over their efficiency and a broader shift toward lower top-end tax rates.

Wealth taxes were once a prominent source of tax revenues in Europe, though implementation dwindled at the turn of the twenty-first century

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As of 2024, Switzerland, Norway, Spain and are among the few countries to impose some form of wealth tax. But more countries are coming around to the idea. Colombia introduced a wealth tax in 2022, and the Scottish government is among others to have touted proposals.

According to Arun Advani, associate professor of economics at the University of Warwick, the most effective wealth tax policies are those that are targeted and specific.

“If you want a wealth tax that’s actually going to be effective at the top end … you typically want to start at quite a high threshold,” Advani said, noting that historically abandoned policies either came in too low or allowed too many exemptions to generate sufficient tax revenues.

A mass money exodus

Tax specialists note, however, that even well-designed wealth tax policies can be hard to enforce in practice, with questions arising over which assets should be taxed and who should be responsible for evaluating their value.

Indeed, the potential for behavioral shifts is one of the top arguments leveled against wealth taxes. Critics point to the increased risk of a wealth exodus among the highly mobile super-rich, including to tax havens, which they say undermines original efforts to boost government coffers.

Business owners are forced to leave the country. This is a great impact for a lot of people, me as well, and it’s not sustainable.

Tord Kolstad

founder and CEO of T. Kolstad Eiendom

“We certainly see individuals looking at other countries to see is, is if there was a wealth tax to be introduced would there be merit in moving?,” Christine Cairns, personal tax partner at PwC said.

In 2022, when Norway increased its wealth tax on residents with assets above 20 million Norwegian kroner ($1.8 million), many flocked to Switzerland. Entrepreneur Tord Kolstad was one of approximately 70 super-wealthy Norwegians who made the move in 2023.

“They doubled this taxation from one day to another. This is the reason Norwegian business owners are forced to leave the country. This is a great impact for a lot of people, me as well, and it’s not sustainable in the long run,” Kolstad, founder and CEO of Norwegian property group T. Kolstad Eiendom, said.

Data suggests that wealth tax accounts for only a very small proportion of total tax revenues in the countries where it has been applied.

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Researchers are divided on the risks of capital flight from a wealth tax, with some arguing that cash outflows would be limited. But they do raise other concerns over the costs of such a policy and its ability to redistribute wealth.

Data suggests that a wealth tax accounts for only a very small proportion of total tax revenues in the countries where it has been applied. Often those revenues have failed to increase much over time.

“There is more cost on the tax authority side, because they’ll definitely need to be doing additional valuations,” Advani said. “A different area of cost that you could be worried about is what does it do to, for example, incentives to invest.”

Addressing wealth inequality

Still, proponents argue that the revenues generated from a wealth tax could mark a major step in combatting the wealth gap.

Global wealth inequality has risen significantly over recent years, with the richest 1% bagging two-thirds of all new wealth created since 2020, according to Oxfam. The poorest 50% of the global population now own just 2% of total net wealth, while the richest 10% hold 76%. Of that, the wealthiest 1% own around two-thirds.

Under Biden’s proposals, a 25% tax on those with over $100 million would raise $500 billion over 10 years to help fund benefits such as childcare and paid parental leave. That would lift the average tax rate for America’s 1,000 billionaires from 8.2% and bring it in line with the 25% paid by average American workers, according to Biden.

Even a 2% tax on the world’s 2,756 known billionaires could raise $250 billion per year, according to a 2023 report from the independent research lab EU Tax Observatory, which backs calls for a global wealth tax. A separate Oxfam report in 2023 suggested a 5% tax on the world’s multi-millionaires and billionaires could raise $1.7 trillion annually — enough to lift 2 billion people out of poverty.

Groups like Patriotic Millionaires say that is part of their stated aims. A 2024 poll by Patriotic Millionaires found that more than half (58%) of millionaires from G20 countries back a 2% tax on wealth over $10 million. Three-quarters (74%) said they support higher taxes on the wealthy in general.

However, some question whether such calls could be a way for the world’s richest to safeguard against a more radical redistribution of wealth in the future.

“There are people who are talking you know, very seriously about the idea of libertarianism and saying there is a limit on total wealth that people should be allowed to have and sort of basically 100% tax above that level,” Advani said.

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Citadel’s Ken Griffin says the Fed shouldn’t cut too quickly

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Ken Griffin, Citadel at CNBC’s Delivering Alpha, Sept. 28, 2022.

Scott Mlyn | CNBC

Ken Griffin, Citadel founder and CEO, thinks the Federal Reserve should move slowly to cut interest rates in its fight against stubborn inflation.

“If I’m them, I don’t want to cut too quickly,” Griffin said at the International Futures Industry conference in Boca Raton, Florida on Tuesday. “The worst thing they could end up doing is cutting, pausing and then changing direction back towards higher rates quickly. That would, in my opinion, be the most devastating course of action that they could pursue.”

“So I think they are going to be a bit slower than what people were expecting two months ago in cutting rates. I think we are seeing that play out,” he added.

His comment came as data showed inflation rose again in February, with the consumer price index climbing slightly higher than expected on an annualized basis. The uptick in price pressures could keep the Fed on course to wait at least until the summer before starting to lower interest rates.

The billionaire investor said there are significant inflationary forces in place that keep prices elevated.

“We still have an enormous amount of government spending. That’s pro inflationary. And we are also going to a period in history of deglobalization. So we’ve got two big, big tailwinds that continue to support the inflation narrative,” Griffin said.

While the inflation rate is well off its mid-2022 peak, it still remains well above the Fed’s 2% goal. Fed officials in recent weeks have signaled that rate cuts are likely at some point this year and have expressed caution about letting up too soon in the battle against high prices. 

The Fed’s next two-day policy meeting takes place in a week.

Citadel’s flagship multistrategy Wellington fund gained 15.3% last year.

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DOJ opens investigation into Alaska Airlines incident of door panel blowing out midair, WSJ says

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An Alaska airlines Boeing 737 is taking off from Los Angeles International AirPort (LAX) in Los Angeles, California, on March 6, 2024.

Daniel Slim | Afp | Getty Images

The Justice Department has started a criminal investigation into the Alaska Airlines incident where a door panel blew out mid-air two months ago, The Wall Street Journal reported Saturday.

The newspaper, citing documents and people familiar with the matter, said investigators have contacted passengers, pilots and flight attendants on Flight 1282 on Jan. 5 heading to Ontario, California from Portland, Oregon, where a section of the plane ripped off midair, forcing the crew to make an emergency landing.

The investigation would help the DOJ its in review of whether Boeing complied with an previous settlement of a federal investigation into two fatal 737 Max crashes in 2018 and 2019, the Journal said.

“In an event like this, it’s normal for the DOJ to be conducting an investigation,” an Alaska Airlines spokesperson said. “We are fully cooperating and do not believe we are a target of the investigation.” 

The DOJ declined to comment. Boeing didn’t immediately respond to a CNBC request for comment.

Boeing 737 Max 9 planes flown by Alaska have resumed regular service after being grounded for inspections. Alaska and United Airlines, the two U.S. carriers that fly the Max 9, canceled thousands of flights in January after the incident.

Three passengers are suing Boeing and Alaska Airlines for $1 billion in damages, accusing Boeing and Alaska Airlines of negligence for allegedly having ignored warning signs.

Alaska Airlines earlier estimated that the weekslong grounding of the Boeing 737 Max 9 will cost the carrier $150 million.

— Read the original WSJ story here.

— CNBC’s Rebecca Picciotto contributed reporting.

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Powell says Fed is ‘not far’ from the point of cutting interest rates

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Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testifies during the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee hearing titled “The Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress,” in Dirksen Building on Thursday, March 7, 2024.

Tom Williams | Cq-roll Call, Inc. | Getty Images

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Thursday indicated that interest rate cuts may not be too far off if inflation signals cooperate.

In remarks to the Senate Banking Committee, the central bank leader didn’t provide a precise timetable of when he sees easing happening, but noted that the day could be coming soon.

“We’re waiting to become more confident that inflation is moving sustainably at 2%. When we do get that confidence, and we’re not far from it, it’ll be appropriate to begin to dial back the level of restriction,” Powell said in response to a question about rates and inflation. He said the cuts would be so the Fed doesn’t “drive the economy into recession rather than normalizing policy as the economy gets back to normal.”

Powell spoke at a time when financial markets have swung considerably in their expectations on Fed policy.

At the beginning of the year, futures traders were betting the Fed would start in March and keep going until it had cut six or seven times this year. The outlook now is for the first cut to come in June, with four reductions totaling a full percentage point by the end of 2024.

Inflation data recently has indicated the pace of price increases is continuing to slow, though the consumer price index rattled markets when it came in higher than expected for January. Still, Powell noted in congressional testimony this week that inflation is progressing lower, though not at the point yet where the Fed is ready to cut.

“I think we’re in the right place,” Powell said of the current policy stance.

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Some NYCB deposits may be at risk after another Moody’s downgrade

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A sign is pictured above a branch of New York Community Bank in Yonkers, New York, on Jan. 31, 2024.

Mike Segar | Reuters

Regional lender New York Community Bank may have to pay more to retain deposits after one of the company’s key ratings was slashed for the second time in a month.

Late Friday, Moody’s Investors Service cut the deposit rating of NYCB’s main banking subsidiary by four notches, to Ba3 from Baa2, putting it three levels below investment grade. That followed a two-notch cut from Moody’s in early February.

The downgrade could trigger contractual obligations from business clients of NYCB who require the bank to maintain an investment grade deposit rating, according to analysts who track the company. Consumer deposits at FDIC-insured banks are covered up to $250,000.

NYCB has found itself in a stock freefall that began a month ago when it reported a surprise fourth-quarter loss and steeper provisions for loan losses. Concerns intensified last week after the bank’s new management found “material weaknesses” in the way it reviewed its commercial loans. Shares of the bank have fallen 73% this year, including a 23% decline Monday, and now trade hands for less than $3 apiece.

Of key interest for analysts and investors is the status of NYCB’s deposits. Last month, the bank said it had $83 billion in deposits as of Feb. 5, and that 72% of those were insured or collateralized. But the figures are from the day before Moody’s began slashing the bank’s ratings, sparking speculation about possible flight of deposits since then.

The Moody’s ratings cuts could affect funds in at least two areas: a “Banking as a Service” business with $7.8 billion in deposits as of a May regulatory filing, and a mortgage escrow unit with between $6 billion and $8 billion in deposits.

“There is potential risk to servicing deposits in the event of a downgrade,” Citigroup analyst Keith Horowitz said in a Feb. 4 research note.

NYCB executives told Horowitz that the deposit rating, which Moody’s had pegged at A3 at the time, would have to fall four notches before being at risk. It has fallen six notches since that note was published.

During a Feb. 7 conference call, NYCB Chief Financial Officer John Pinto confirmed that the bank’s mortgage escrow business needed to maintain an investment grade status and said that deposit levels in the unit fluctuated between $6 billion and $8 billion.

“If there’s a contract with these depositors that you have to be investment grade, theoretically that would be a triggering event,” KBW analyst Chris McGratty said of the Moody’s downgrade.

NYCB didn’t immediately respond to CNBC’s calls or an email seeking comment.

It couldn’t be determined what the contracts force NYCB to do in the event of it breaching investment grade status, or whether downgrades from multiple ratings firms would be needed to trigger contractual provisions. For instance, while Fitch Ratings cut NYCB’s credit ratings to junk last week, it kept the bank’s long-term uninsured deposits at BBB-, one level above junk.

To replace deposits, NYCB could raise brokered deposits, issue new debt or borrow from the Federal Reserve’s facilities, but that would all probably come at a higher cost, McGratty said.

“They will do whatever it takes to keep deposits in house, but as this scenario is playing out, it may become more cost prohibitive to fund the balance sheet,” McGratty said.

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TMX CEO jumps deeper into ETFs

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TMX Group CEO on ETF growth, commodities and crypto

The Toronto Stock Exchange’s parent company has already completed a major deal this year: its acquisition of ETF education company VettaFi.

According to TMX Group CEO John McKenzie, the deal helps expand its exchange-traded fund business globally.

“The exchange-traded fund is essentially one of the most important innovations in investing in the marketplace history — at least in the last 20 [to] 30 years,” McKenzie told CNBC’s “ETF Edge” this week. “What we were really looking to do is … get deeper into providing more support to our clients.”

Even though ETF activity has cooled off from its 2022 records, action in 2023 was still above previous years, according to iShares data.

McKenzie plans to utilize the VettaFi acquisition to facilitate more ETF creation.

“ETF providers can create new products and great solutions so that they can reach a broader investing audience,” McKenzie said. “That’s the one two punch of what we’re doing with that investment.”

TMX’s ETF Screener lists 1,264 ETFs and ETF-related funds on the Toronto Stock Exchange as of Friday.

With VettaFi in the exchange’s tool belt, McKenzie hopes to create new ETFs focusing on Canada’s economic strengths and how they can reach international investors.

“We want to be more global than local,” added McKenzie. “This is a great asset to help us build not just in the U.S., not just in Canada, but around the world.”

Since the acquisition was completed on Jan. 2, TMX shares are up 11%.

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Geely-backed ECARX takes aim at Nvidia’s growing auto business

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Chinese automaker Geely unveils first model of its new Lynk & Co brand in Berlin. 

Ullstein Bild Dtl. | Ullstein Bild | Getty Images

BEIJING — Companies from Nvidia to Huawei are chasing the market for in-vehicle tech as the electric car industry booms, with Ecarx emerging as a new contender.

Since 2017, Chinese car conglomerate Geely‘s founder and chairman, Eric Li, has been building Ecarx that provides software and chip systems for digital car cockpits and driver-assist.

The company on Wednesday reported its fourth-quarter revenue surged 22% from a year earlier to $263 million. Geely’s car brands, such as Lynk and Co, made up 70% of that revenue.

For the same quarter, Nvidia reported automotive revenue fell 4%, year on year, to $281 million, even as CEO Jensen Huang has called the segment the company’s “next billion-dollar business.

Nvidia counts Geely’s premium electric car brand Zeekr as a customer for its Drive Orin chip, which uses artificial intelligence to power driver-assist capabilities known as “system on a chip.” Li Auto, BYD’s Denza brand and Xiaomi are among Nvidia’s other automotive customers.

Ecarx co-founder and CEO Ziyu Shen told CNBC in an interview this week that Nvidia enjoys an edge when it comes to AI-based autonomous driving systems.

“We can’t compete with them in this area,” he said, but noted there’s still about 70% or 80% of the car market that doesn’t need such advanced tech, and can buy simpler driver-assist tech focused on safety.

“Safety will be a very important entry point for us,” he said in Mandarin, translated by CNBC.

Xiaomi targets 20 million premium users for its new electric vehicle, says president

Ecarx sells its own “system on a chip” Antora 1000 that’s used by Lynk and Co.

Shen claimed his company’s current products compete directly with Qualcomm’s Snapdragon chips, and that new offerings set to be announced on March 20 will be at the same level as Nvidia’s Orin X.

So despite conceding Nvidia’s current primacy in AI-based tech, Shen is looking at diverse ways to grab more market share in autos.

Geopolitical advantage?

Ecarx plans to benefit from selling to local Chinese companies that need to buy from domestic firms due to geopolitical reasons, Shen said, adding that the company works with nearly all major automakers except for BYD in China.

He expects the overseas market to be a growing business for the company as well and something that offers it an edge over Chinese competitors such as Huawei.

In the last few months, Huawei has disclosed several agreements to sell its operating system and other car tech to automakers in China but has yet to announce major overseas deals in the sector. The company also sells electric cars through its co-developed brand Aito.

“I think it is very difficult for Huawei to go global because it is a sanctioned company,” Shen said. “I think it will be very hard for Western companies to cooperate with them.“

When asked about the impact of U.S. restrictions on Chinese tech, Shen claimed his company has isolated China operations from its overseas business, and follows local compliance requirements pertaining to AI chip-related business in the U.S. as well as intellectual property protection.

Ecarx’s website lists offices in the U.S. and Europe, as well as China.

Shen aims Ecarx to grow its overseas sales from around 10% of current revenue to at least 25% next year, and to at least 40% in the next four or five years.

“To be honest, if we can’t serve the world’s five largest automakers, it’s very hard for us to become a big company,” he said, “because none of China’s [original equipment manufacturers] are among the world’s top five.”

BYD was by far the largest car company in China last year, followed by Volkswagen’s local joint venture with FAW, according to data from the China Passenger Car Association that included fuel-powered vehicles. Geely ranked third.

In new energy vehicles, which include hybrids and battery-powered cars, BYD ranked first, followed by Tesla, GAC’s Aion brand and then Geely, according to association data.

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Berkshire shares slip after hitting all-time high on big profit gain

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Warren Buffett tours the grounds at the Berkshire Hathaway Annual Shareholders Meeting in Omaha Nebraska.

David A. Grogan | CNBC

Berkshire Hathaway shares slipped Monday, despite hitting an all-time high following strong earnings from Warren Buffett’s conglomerate over the weekend.

Berkshire’s Class A shares last fell by 2.2%. Earlier in the session, the stock reached an all-time intraday high of $647,039, according to FactSet data. The shares settled at $615,356.

Meanwhile, Class B shares declined by 1.9%. At one point, the stock hit an intraday record high of $430. It closed down at $409.14.

Berkshire on Saturday posted fourth-quarter operating earnings of $8.481 billion, about 28% higher than the $6.625 billion from the year-ago period, driven by big gains in its insurance business. Operating earnings refers to profit from businesses across insurance, railroads and utilities.

Meanwhile, Berkshire’s cash levels also swelled to records. The conglomerate held $167.6 billion in cash in the fourth quarter, surpassing the $157.2 billion record the conglomerate held in the prior quarter.

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Berkshire Hathaway Class A

But one analyst said he expects that the stock is fairly valued, saying any upside from the conglomerate’s rosy earnings outlook is already priced into the name.

“BRK shares have significantly outperformed financial services peers during 2023, supported by a relatively strong earnings outlook. We continue to expect solid earnings from BRK’s diverse group of operating companies,” Edward Jones’ James Shanahan wrote Saturday. “In our view, however, the current share price reflects these positives.”

In fact, the billionaire investor said in his annual letter also released this past weekend that he expects Berkshire will only slightly outperform the average company from here on, especially as the conglomerate reaches a net worth of 6% of the total S&P 500 companies.

‘With our present mix of businesses, Berkshire should do a bit better than the average American corporation and, more important, should also operate with materially less risk of permanent loss of capital,” Buffett said. “Anything beyond ‘slightly better,’ though, is wishful thinking.”

Buffett added that only a handful of businesses are likely to “truly move the needle” for the firm through acquisitions. The last major deal Berkshire made was in 2022, when it bought insurer and conglomerate Alleghany for $11.6 billion.

— CNBC’s Michael Bloom and Chris Hayes contributed to this report.

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Block (SQ) earnings Q4 2023

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Jack Dorsey, co-founder and chief executive officer of Twitter Inc. and Square Inc., listens during the Bitcoin 2021 conference in Miami, Florida, on Friday, June 4, 2021.

Eva Marie Uzcategui | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Block stock closed up 16% Friday, a day after the payments company reported fourth-quarter earnings that beat analysts’ estimates on gross profit and showed strong growth in its Square and Cash App revenue.

Here’s how the company did, compared to analysts’ consensus from LSEG, formerly known as Refinitiv:

  • Earnings per share: 45 cents adjusted, not comparable to estimates
  • Revenue: $5.77 billion vs. $5.70 billion expected

Block posted $2.03 billion in gross profit, up 22% from a year ago. Analysts tend to focus on gross profit as a more accurate measurement of the company’s core transactional businesses.

The company raised its adjusted EBITDA forecast to at least $2.63 billion from $2.40 billion.

Block, formerly known as Square, ended the year with 56 million monthly transacting actives for Cash App in December, with most of those customers using it for either peer-to-peer payments or the Cash App Card.

Its Cash App business reported $1.18 billion in gross profit, a 25% year-over-year rise.

The company, which is run by Jack Dorsey, said its Cash App Card has 23 million monthly actives in December, up 20%. That is more than two times the growth rate of total monthly actives.

“We believe this strategy will enable us to build the largest network in the long run, with a highly engaged customer base using Cash App as their primary banking solution,” Dorsey said in a note to shareholders.

The payments firm has focused on slimming down operations in recent months. In January, the Block CEO reportedly said in a note to staffers that the company had laid off a “large number” of workers. This followed another round of layoffs in December.

Dorsey said in his note to shareholders that the company was now below a previously set cap of 12,000 employees.

“We’re going to operate under this cap until we feel it’s holding us back, which is likely years out,” Dorsey wrote. The company recorded a $70 million charge for severance costs.

The company also took an $132 million impairment on its investment in music streaming service Tidal. Block and Dorsey have had a mixed dealmaking record. The company sold delivery service Caviar to DoorDash in 2019 in a $410 million cash-and-stock deal. It also acquired Afterpay in 2021 for $29 billion, its largest acquisition ever.

Afterpay has struggled since the deal announcement, posting successive quarters of losses throughout 2022. Dorsey said in his note to shareholders that integrating Afterpay more tightly into Cash App and using it to power Cash App’s buy-now, pay-later technology were two focuses for 2024.

Block’s strong quarterly results and full-year outlook prompted Wall Street analysts to upgrade their rating of the stock on Friday.

Wells Fargo upgraded Block to overweight and raised its price target from $65 to $95, while Seaport Research Partners upgraded the stock to a buy and also hiked its price target to $95.

“SQ’s progress over the past several months in terms of streamlining itself organizationally, sharpening its focus within its two key businesses Square and Cash App, and becoming hyper-focused on driving profitable growth has been impressive,” the Seaport Research Partners analysts wrote. “We think there’s more to go.”

— CNBC’s Michael Bloom, Rohan Goswami, Alex Koller and Kate Rooney contributed to this report.

WATCH: Block shares pop on earnings beat

Block shares pop on Q4 earnings beat

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Fed minutes January 2024:

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Fed minutes show the rates seen are likely at peak

WASHINGTON – Federal Reserve officials indicated at their last meeting that they were in no hurry to cut interest rates and expressed both optimism and caution on inflation, according to minutes from the session released Wednesday.

The discussion came as policymakers not only decided to leave their key overnight borrowing rate unchanged but also altered the post-meeting statement to indicate that no cuts would be coming until the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee held “greater confidence” that inflation was receding.

“Most participants noted the risks of moving too quickly to ease the stance of policy and emphasized the importance of carefully assessing incoming data in judging whether inflation is moving down sustainably to 2 percent,” the minutes stated.

The meeting summary did indicate a general sense of optimism that the Fed’s policy moves had succeeded in lowering the rate of inflation, which in mid-2022 hit its highest level in more than 40 years.

However, officials noted that they wanted to see more before starting to ease policy, while saying that rate hikes are likely over.

“In discussing the policy outlook, participants judged that the policy rate was likely at its peak for this tightening cycle,” the minutes stated. But, “Participants generally noted that they did not expect it would be appropriate to reduce the target range for the federal funds rate until they had gained greater confidence that inflation was moving sustainably toward 2 percent.”

Before the meeting, a string of reports showed that inflation, while still elevated, was moving back toward the Fed’s 2% target. While the minutes assessed the “solid progress” being made, the committee viewed some of that progress as “idiosyncratic” and possibly due to factors that won’t last.

Consequently, members said they will “carefully assess” incoming data to judge where inflation is heading over the longer term. Officials noted both upside and downside risks and worried about lowering rates too quickly.

Questions over how quickly to move

“Participants highlighted the uncertainty associated with how long a restrictive monetary policy stance would need to be maintained,” the summary said.

Officials “remained concerned that elevated inflation continued to harm households, especially those with limited means to absorb higher prices,” the minutes said. “While the inflation data had indicated significant disinflation in the second half of last year, participants observed that they would be carefully assessing incoming data in judging whether inflation was moving down sustainably toward 2 percent.”

The minutes reflected an internal debate over how quickly the Fed will want to move considering the uncertainty about the outlook.

Since the Jan. 30-31 meeting, the cautionary approach has borne out as separate readings on consumer and producer prices showed inflation running hotter than expected and still well ahead of the Fed’s 2% 12-month target.

Multiple officials in recent weeks have indicated a patient approach toward loosening monetary policy. A stable economy, which grew at a 2.5% annualized pace in 2023, has encouraged FOMC members that the succession of 11 interest rate hikes implemented in 2022 and 2023 have not substantially hampered growth.

To the contrary, the U.S. labor market has continued to expand at a brisk pace, adding 353,000 nonfarm payroll positions in January. First-quarter economic data thus far is pointing to GDP growth of 2.9%, according to the Atlanta Fed.

Along with the discussion on rates, members also brought up the bond holdings on the Fed’s balance sheet. Since June 2022, the central bank has allowed more than $1.3 trillion in Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities to roll off rather than reinvesting proceeds as usual.

‘Ample level of reserves’

The minutes indicated that a more in-depth discussion will take place at the March meeting. Policymakers also indicated at the January meeting that they are likely to take a go-slow approach on a process nicknamed “quantitative tightening.” The pertinent question is how high reserve holdings will need to be to satisfy banks’ needs. The Fed characterizes the current level as “ample.”

“Some participants remarked that, given the uncertainty surrounding estimates of the ample level of reserves, slowing the pace of runoff could help smooth the transition to that level of reserves or could allow the Committee to continue balance sheet runoff for longer,” the minutes said. “In addition, a few participants noted that the process of balance sheet runoff could continue for some time even after the Committee begins to reduce the target range for the federal funds rate.”

Fed officials consider current policy to be restrictive, so the big question going forward will be how much it will need to be relaxed both to support growth and control inflation.

There is some concern that growth continues to be too fast.

The consumer price index rose 3.1% on a 12-month basis in January – 3.9% when excluding food and energy, the latter of which posted a big decline during the month. So-called sticky CPI, which weighs toward housing and other prices that don’t fluctuate as much, rose 4.6%, according to the Atlanta Fed. Producer prices increased 0.3% on a monthly basis, well above Wall Street expectations.

In an interview on CBS’ “60 Minutes” that aired just a few days after the FOMC meeting, Chair Jerome Powell said, “With the economy strong like that, we feel like we can approach the question of when to begin to reduce interest rates carefully.” He added that he is looking for “more evidence that inflation is moving sustainably down to 2%.”

Markets have since had to recalibrate their expectations for rate cuts.

Where traders in the fed funds futures market had been pricing in a near lock for a March cut, that has been pushed out to June. The expected level of cuts for the full year had been reduced to four from six. FOMC officials in December projected three.

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